eGeomate: Predictions 2010: Internet

TRANSLATION NOTES: Please read some comments at the end of this post to know more about Centro American Dishes and drinks.

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Of course I would like to have a crystal ball and perform like a magician, but it isn’t my claim, my attempt only passes to spend a while in this hammock which is a pleasure and this cup of coffee prepare just as my mother-in-law does: sparse and done at home (Spanish idiom: “Chirrio y de palo” which means: not so concentrate and entirely prepared at home without any electrical artifact or device), after such a sailor soup (*).

I would like to CLARIFY first for those who only read headings: I would be crazy if I decide to close the blog, now, when I most enjoy it. It was only a bad joke of the innocent day. And once clarified the matter, let’s smoke together what we could expect this year.

Bubble ends up breaking

2010 should be a critical year for many trends that not longer have way to reinvent themselves. I’m referring about much of what emerged under Web 2.0 aura and weren’t innovative but only an imitation of what others began.

Already the worst of the economic crisis passed, but it leaves up two years to consider that the world economy again is in flood. Meanwhile, creative companies (and Ratatouille) have already planned its redesign, waiting for the spark; not small ones, which have withstood the storm saying that they are well but aware that if this doesn’t change, their not founding shareholders will leave the damn (if not already done so).

So, without having many magical abilities, it is clear that 2010 is the second of at least three years of decline, the stage in the product cycle which expects a new wave not to survive, but to reinvent itself; and if it is the sole portfolio product its death is inevitable. Thus, the altruism of many initiatives could pass a serious crisis; you only need to see the ragged clothes of projects like Wikipedia to predict what might happen with others that have not yet find a strategy for sustainable survival.

Then: Large projects will survive, and children who are creative could merge to medium projects. The small not innovative will simply make a resignation smile and say “tables again” this is the border we’ve reached. This isn’t bad, it’s a rule of life that has always happened, only that in this era of rapid boom is likely that in less than a year we’ll see a large project accepting with sincerity its retirement strategy and conversion to a Foundation, stopping the research area and only giving continuity to the existing. Purely commercial initiatives will simply close and sell its portfolio of clients and its little useful API to a competitor.

Not of the same.

The case is that this time is no longer for market positioning, because that’s not going to change if they continue kicking in the same way. It means that some social networks, online advertising companies, hosting providers and services from the cloud with poor demand will disappear untimely (Spanish Idiom: “de romplón” which means without any advice).

Year of wear

Blogs and forums should continue being exploited, but the trend towards fatigue is inevitable. Search engines (which are barely 3) will be more selective in order not to index from subdomains, farms blogs or sites abandoned; with this, the life of these communities should be the people using them, commenting, linking practices without viral damaging ( or real communities).

Year of innovation

Although it won’t a boom, 2010 may mark the beginning of the third generation, that world naively called Semantic Web, which may never happen but we’ll have an approach although it is forced. Two signals that open the door to this milestone are visible:

• The first is the increasingly global connectivity dependency, new toys that are bound to the (increasingly wider) broadband by lower prices.
• The second is the nonconformity to continue drinking stale wine taking such innovative bottles.

In the fusion of these two trends, sure it is forged a new stage in which those who depend on it will only have to retrofit us. If there is business, then there is tendency… and in a network with many millions, sure that there are business, it’s only a matter of time to make it sustainable.

But that won’t be seen in 2010, we will barely know where large vessels are navigating. Google, Microsoft, HP, Oracle, Apple, (and for not suffering, Yahoo is also include). Others only prepare not to be wound in their path and have enough time to position without loosing their users.

• Blogs assembled on WordPress must only adapt the new version, for those mounted on Blogger, Google shall protect them. And we, happy, smoking and writing without headaches; but take care! let us forget adaptations as WordPress MU (! Oops!).
• Social networks, should adapt to work on the API Facebook or its new competitor, and goodbye to Hi5.
• The forums must reinvent themselves, because it does not come much more innovative in that route. One day people may get tired of the help me please boards no new sustainable community strategies
• Wikis, just to follow, because their design has been very solid from the beginning.
• Twitter and family, set foot on earth.
• Technorati, wiggle sites, farms blogs and other herbs… just readjust to the new rss format… and maybe in two years, Goodbye Atom

And, what about us?

Many of these changes will only begin in 2010, and ones who will notice it will be generations down from 25 years; they, that waste (in our opinion) their time uploading photos, sharing their State, chatting, downloading pirated things and watching videos on YouTube. They will be the Guinea pig, the ones who use newest technologies, buy nothing but define global trends.

And me, I can post 360 new entries, very exciting (at least for me); and by the post 180, I’ll feel ashamed of it, so more than one time I’ll readapt what I said to justify the depressive adrenaline that produces the stick coffee from my mother-in-law.

Half bitter, half strong (Spanish Idiom: “chirrio” applied to the coffee means sparse, not so concentrate), half remained (Spanish Idiom: “chingastoso” which means with residues or remainders) … ¡But good!

TRANSLATION NOTES:

Sailor Soup: in Spanish “Sopa Marinera” is a kind of soup made principally with fish, prawn, sea snail, coconut milk and chili pepper.